Source: Snowball APP, Author: Central Assets, (
Wind and dusty, I went to Taiwan last week. This week, I came to Mumbai, India to attend a investment summit.For the first time in India for the first time in 5 years, the timing is very good. Just after passing the Congress election, Prime Minister Modi (Modi) is re -elected for the third time, but BJP (People’s Party) has lost most of the seats and needs to cooperate with some small parties to form a joint government. ManyPeople have different interpretations of the results of this election.
The first impression after the plane is the airport building and facilities, which are close to international standards. The biggest change is that road infrastructure investment is really much more. Sealink and Coastal Road tunnel, etc.EssenceMumbai is also building a second airport that is extremely needed. When I arrived, my passenger plane ranked 17th!The next day, there were two planes that showed two planes. One up and one fell, and the horror was very closeMumbai Wealth Management. As a result, some flight traffic commanders had been fired.Mumbai is also building a subway and started to use it about two years.
The results of the Indian elections are a bit unexpected.During the election, MODI has repeatedly predicted that the "National Democratic Alliance" (NDA) can win 400 seats, that is, more than two -thirds of the super majority.It is very unfavorable to the people of Islam and the people of Lower Caste.Although Modi is so confident, many people think that after the five years of Demonetization, GST, and Covid impact, Anti-Incumbency has begun to rise. In addition to BJP, it is difficult to maintain the original 300 seats.Most people estimate that BJP will win between 270 and 290 seats.However, the results of BJP are far from expected that only 240 seats are won, and even half of it is.
There are three main reasons for the loss: the first is Caste Politics, and the low -level people are dissatisfied with their policies; the second is the so -called Rural Distress (rural dilemma), that is, the people of rural backward areas, and have not enjoyed the rapid development of India’s rapid developmentThe results of; the third is that the unemployment rate of young people is more than 20%, especially university graduates, with an unemployment rate of 43%.The situation is similar to India, but in fact, the problem is more serious, because India is young, and more than 40%of the people are less than 25 years old.Obviously these three reasons are related. Although India has become the fifth economic country in the world, GDP exceeds 3.5 trillion US dollars, the annual growth rate is as high as 7%to 8%, and the per capita income has reached an important critical point of $ 2,500. Consumption consumption has been consumed.It will rise sharply, but the uneven situation of the rich and the poor is still serious, and a large number of young people still cannot find a job.
The market had a short -term shock response. One day after the election results were announced, the stock market fell nearly 9 %, but in less than a few days, it rebounded and hit a record high.Obviously investors, especially local investors, are young novices. They still have great confidence in the leadership of Modi. Therefore, in the past year, in addition to high -growth small and medium -sized stocks, even PSUS (state -owned enterprises with relatively low efficiency), The average is more than 50%of the height.
In the past six months, in fact, foreign FII has been relatively conservative, but it has seen a net outflow of $ 3 billion in May.Foreign media actually don’t like Modi very much. He believes that he has been in power for 10 years, democracy retreats, and the media and court have been intervened by the government, becoming a tendency to AutoCracy, and even the possibility of being politically moving towards Hinduism.In addition, the West certainly hopes that India is in love with their camps and deal with India and Russia together.It was a bit effective to deal with India’s unfortunate. During the first term of MODI, I had worked hard to improve Sino -Indian relations and met with Indian leaders many times.EssenceIn Russia, despite the pressure of the West, India has performed unbalanced against Russia and has also become the biggest winner of Russian oil trade.Indian weapons relied on Russia in large quantities. In addition, the Soviet Union voted in the United Nations, even military, and even multiple times to help to resist the United States and Western bullying.However, the results of this election were touted by Western media as a victory of democracy, so I think foreign investment has the opportunity to invest in India in the second half of the year.The Indian stock market is of course much more expensive than India. The P/E (price -earnings ratio) is about 22 times, which is similar to the United States, but the profit growth is as high as 15%, and the ROE (shareholders’ equity return rate) is also close to 15%.
I attended a CIO seminar yesterday morning. I presided over how to compare my development model in India and India?I think India has obviously obtained the experience from India’s development experience. In the past 5 years, it has developed infrastructure and investment seriously. Now infrastructure has accounted for more than 9%of GDP, plus other investment, the total amount accounts for about 32%of GDP, which is good, but it is not bad, but with India’s 40 40More than%are still a bit distance, while India’s consumption accounts for nearly 60%higher, which is slightly too high.India has reached a high level of development, with per capita income of about $ 12,000, but instead of encouraging consumption and reducing investment.
Of course, infrastructure is a good thing, but the next stage is more important to manufacture. India only accounts for about 2%of global production capacity, and India accounts for 33%.The development experience of Four Xiaolong and India is urbanization. Turning farmers to factories is the most effective way to manufacture employment and poverty alleviation.It is a bit strange that India has no competitiveness in the clothing industry. Instead, it lost to Bangladesh because of labor, land law, and expensive electricity.Instead, in electronic assembly and automotive parts, India has gradually risen, partly because the West is looking for the so -called "India +1" supply chain.
My suggestion is that India should accelerate the development of manufacturing, not only low -end, but even high -end electric vehicles should also come to China.Even if the local market is still small, India can cooperate with Tesla () (beauty 🙂 and especially Indian electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers (also helps to improve Sino -Indian relations), and is committed to developing cheaper EVs, as low as 5,000 US dollars a one a one, oneThe Taiwan is possible.You can first exit the market. The tariffs and other trade barriers are definitely smaller than India.Although some Westerners have warned not to make the same mistakes and cultivate India, they will raise tigers in the future.
After the election, everyone’s biggest doubt is whether the MODI will change the policy, tend to increase social benefits that are not helpful to improve productivity, while slowing down Capex (capital investment).The financial budget in July and the elections in the second half of the year will be revealed.Most people think that MODI will change in the image and make it more affordable. This year, the central bank has issued a special interest of $ 13 billion to the government, which should be used to soothe the poor.Karma is a good thing.
Is India a good piece, and long -term investment returns continue to win the world?It can be seen that this may be like this in the future, but of course, the largest population country will face many problems.Employment is the primary. In the long run, it is a question worth observing and considering whether it will be affected by AI.This week has reached the rainy season of Monsoon. The temperature of Mumbai is about 30 ° C, but a few weeks ago, many places across the country were above 50 ° C. It was obviously affected by climate change. This is also a great challengePune Investment!
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